Jeju Peace Institute

Many South Koreans hoped that the relationship between the two Koreas would take a turn for the better following the death of Kim Jong-il, the leader of North Korea. However, the North has continually resorted to bellicose provocations and harsh threatening rhetoric as part of its psychological warfare against the South in 2014. On July 14, 2014, for example, the North’s coastal guns and multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) fired over 200 shells on open seas and even a few short-range missiles were launched. One thing that naturally did not escape our attention is that these acts of belligerence continued for a few days, gradually moving closer to the DMZ.

The purpose of these provocations by the North seems clear: it intends to occupy an advantageous position in its psychological warfare with the South by showing off its capability to destroy targets in the South at any time. The current spate of provocative acts by the North also seems to be linked to its internal situation. Kim Jong-un’s leadership may have secured some stability with the removal of Jang Sung-taek, but the overall atmosphere remains volatile. Moreover, Kim Jong-un must feel irritated about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to South Korea, which points to ever-closer relations between the two countries. In a bid to avoid total isolation, the North has attempted to make friendly overtures toward Japan and Russia, although what it can obtain from them remains questionable. The current situation appears to have compelled the North to make provocations and show off its nuclear capability.

Under such circumstances, the South needs to continue pushing for non-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula while striving to foster conditions for peaceful unification of the two Koreas. This paper deals with the major strategies that the South should adopt in its psychological warfare with the North based on the said needs, including dealing with the North’s regime stably and avoiding any collisions in the short- and mid-term perspectives, assisting it in making a gentle transition within the framework of a peaceful and strategic unification process , and trying to establish conditions that are conducive to gradual and peaceful integration of the two Koreas through an intensification of its psychological warfare with the North.

To conclude, this paper analyzed military measures aimed at enhancing the efficacy of psychological warfare and policy alternatives available in non-military areas. It also stresses the need to deliver the message that the South may, under the umbrella of international collaboration, push for regime change in the North to ensure stability in the region if the North’s regime is unwilling to renounce nuclear weapons and end its provocations.